CCRM: methods and evidence status ↗

02.03 / Scientific foundations

Contextual simulation

After individual analysis, profile structuring and evidence mapping, contextual modelling explores the consequences of explicit assumptions within the person-specific context.

From principle to practice

01

Choose a mathematical representation

Ordinary differential equations describe rates of change in a well-mixed system. Logical models represent qualitative state transitions; constraint-based models restrict feasible fluxes. The appropriate representation depends on the question and data. SBML supports exchange of several biological model types. [1]

02

Make assumptions executable

The demonstration uses dx/dt = a·u·(1−x) − b·x, with constant input u, activation rate a and deactivation rate b. The state x is a normalized active fraction, initially zero. The exact solution is x(t) = x∞·(1−exp(−λt)), where λ = a·u+b and x∞ = a·u/λ. This is a generic two-state model, not a cancer response model.

03

Probe sensitivity and identifiability

Changing parameters changes the trajectory. Different combinations of parameters can produce similar observations, so fitting a curve does not necessarily identify a unique mechanism. The shaded region varies b by ±25%; it is a scenario envelope, not a confidence interval or patient uncertainty estimate.

04

Validate beyond the training conditions

Specify initial conditions, parameter units, model version and numerical method. Test against withheld experimental conditions and compare with simpler baselines. Tissue context, feedback, spatial gradients and changing exposures are omitted here. A plausible trajectory does not establish clinical benefit. [1, 2]

Explore the mechanism

Educational example · no patient data

Generic reversible activation

dx/dt = a·u·(1−x) − b·x
00.250.50.7510246810Time (arbitrary units)Active fraction x
Exact trajectoryScenario envelope: b ±25%
0.600 Steady-state active fraction

x(0) = 0; a and b use inverse arbitrary time units; u is dimensionless. Exact analytical solution, sampled from t = 0 to 10. The envelope is not a confidence interval.

Interpretation boundary

All inputs are dimensionless or use arbitrary time units. No doses, patient data or clinical predictions are generated.

Scientific references

  1. Hucka et al. · SBML Level 3 Version 2 Core specification (2019) ↗
  2. Reactome · Pathway Browser and analysis documentation ↗

References support the methods described, not the validation or performance of Curetanics. Source titles are shown in their original language.

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